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Market Research: U.S. Cholesterol-Lowering Drugs 2005: Rx Market Analysis and Switch Forecasts

U.S. Cholesterol-Lowering Drugs 2005: Rx Market Analysis and Switch Forecasts

Published November 2005

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An in-depth analysis of the prescription cholesterol-lowering drug market and the potential for Rx-to-OTC switches in this class in the United States. The study includes a comprehensive examination of currently available OTCs and consumer products used to help manage cholesterol levels; an assessment of the likelihood of Rx-to-OTC switches in this product class, including various view points on this topic from healthcare professionals; a review of major healthcare trends, including cost containment of prescription drugs; and an interactive forecasting model. (Y589)

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FULL REPORT [$16,600]

INTRODUCTION [$0]

BACKGROUND [$2,500]

Table 3-1 U.S. ADULTS WHO NEED LIFESTYLE AND/OR DRUG TREATMENT: National Cholesterol Education Program ATP III Guidelines
Table 3-2 DESIRABLE CHOLESTEROL LEVELS FOR U.S. ADULTS WITH OR WITHOUT HEART DISEASE
Table 3-3 HIGH CHOLESTEROL TREATMENT IN THE UNITED STATES BY RISK CATEGORY
Table 3-4 U.S. NATIONAL HEART, LUNG, AND BLOOD INSTITUTE’S NATIONAL CHOLESTEROL EDUCATION PROGRAM ATP III GUIDELINES
Table 3-6 U.S. LDL CHOLESTEROL GOALS AND CUT-POINTS FOR THERAPEUTIC LIFESTYLE CHANGES AND DRUG THERAPY IN DIFFERENT RISK CATEGORIES: National Cholesterol Education Program ATP III Guidelines
Table 3-7 U.S. THERAPEUTIC LIFESTYLE CHANGES IF LDL IS ABOVE GOAL: National Cholesterol Education Program ATP III Guidelines
Figure 3-2 TOTAL SERUM CHOLESTEROL LEVELS AMONG PEOPLE 20 TO 74 YEARS OF AGE IN THE UNITED STATES
Table 3-8 TOTAL SERUM CHOLESTEROL LEVELS AMONG PEOPLE 20 TO 74 YEARS OF AGE IN THE UNITED STATES
Figure 3-3 MANUFACTURERS’ SALES OF SELECTED OTC DRUG AND DIETARY SUPPLEMENTS FOR HEART HEALTH MAINTENANCE IN THE UNITED STATES, 2003 AND 2004
Table 3-9 MANUFACTURERS’ SALES OF SELECTED OTC DRUG AND DIETARY SUPPLEMENTS FOR HEART HEALTH MAINTENANCE IN THE UNITED STATES, 2003 AND 2004
Table 3-10 HEALTH CLAIMS ALLOWED FOR CONVENTIONAL FOODS AND DIETARY SUPPLEMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES
Table 3-11 U.S. RETAIL SALES OF NUTRITION PRODUCTS BY CATEGORY, 2003 AND 2004
Table 3-12 U.S. RETAIL SALES OF TOP-SELLING DIETARY SUPPLEMENTS FOR HEART HEALTH, 2004
Table 3-13 TYPES OF OTC HOME CHOLESTEROL TESTS IN THE UNITED STATES
Table 3-14 U.S. MANUFACTURERS’ SALES OF HOME CHOLESTEROL TEST KITS, 2001 TO 2004

RX MARKET ANALYSIS [$4,200]

Table 4-1 MANUFACTURERS’ SALES OF PRESCRIPTION CHOLESTEROL REDUCERS IN THE UNITED STATES, 2001 TO 2004
Table 4-2 U.S. CHOLESTEROL MEDICATIONS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON BLOOD CHOLESTEROL
Table 4-3 DRUGS AFFECTING LIPOPROTEIN METABOLISM BY CLASS
Table 4-4 MANUFACTURERS’ SALES OF PRESCRIPTION CHOLESTEROL REDUCERS IN THE UNITED STATES, 2003 AND 2004
Figure 4-1 MARKET SHARES OF PRESCRIPTION CHOLESTEROL REDUCERS IN THE UNITED STATES, 2004
Figure 4-2 EXPIRATIONS OF U.S. PATENTS FOR CHOLESTEROL REDUCERS
Table 4-5 COMPARING COMMON CHOLESTEROL-LOWERING DRUGS FOR COST AND OTHER FACTORS
Table 4-6 “BEST BUY” STATINS FOR PATIENTS REQUIRING LOWER LDL REDUCTIONS (less than 40%) RANKED BY COST
Table 4-7 “BEST BUY” STATIN CHOICES FOR HIGHER RISK PATIENTS RANKED BY COST
Table 4-8 ESTIMATED PRICES PAID FOR CHOLESTEROL REDUCERS IN THE UNITED STATES
Table 4-9 TRACEABLE MEDIA EXPENDITURES FOR PRESCRIPTION CHOLESTEROL-LOWERING DRUGS, 2004
Table 4-10 TRACEABLE MEDIA EXPENSES FOR PRESCRIPTION CHOLESTEROL-LOWERING DRUGS AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES, 2004
Table 4-11 WORLDWIDE CORPORATE SALES OF PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES COMPETING IN THE U.S. Rx CHOLESTEROL MARKET, 2003 AND 2004

PROFILES OF RX DRUGS [$8,500]

OVERVIEW [$2,100]

Figure 5-1 MARKET SHARES OF LEADING PROFILED CHOLESTEROL-LOWERING DRUGS, 2004

LIPITOR [$2,100]

Table 5-1 MANUFACTURERS’ SALES OF LIPITOR IN THE UNITED STATES, 2001 TO 2004
Table 5-2 TRACEABLE MEDIA EXPENDITURES FOR LIPITOR, 2004
Figure 5-2 BREAKDOWN OF TRACEABLE MEDIA EXPENDITURES FOR LIPITOR, 2004

ZOCOR [$2,100]

Table 5-3 MANUFACTURERS’ SALES OF ZOCOR IN THE UNITED STATES, 2001 TO 2004
Table 5-4 TRACEABLE MEDIA EXPENDITURES FOR ZOCOR, 2004
Figure 5-3 BREAKDOWN OF TRACEABLE MEDIA EXPENDITURES FOR ZOCOR, 2004

PRAVACHOL [$2,100]

Table 5-5 MANUFACTURERS’ SALES OF PRAVACHOL IN THE UNITED STATES, 2001 TO 2004
Table 5-6 TRACEABLE MEDIA EXPENDITURES FOR PRAVACHOL, 2004
Figure 5-4 BREAKDOWN OF TRACEABLE MEDIA EXPENDITURES FOR PRAVACHOL, 2004

MEVACOR [$2,100]

Table 5-7 MANUFACTURERS’ SALES OF MEVACOR IN THE UNITED STATES, 2000 TO 2004

OTHER RX DRUG PROFILES [$2,100]

Figure 5-5 MARKET SHARES OF “OTHER” PROFILED CHOLESTEROL-LOWERING DRUGS, 2004

HEALTHCARE PROFESSIONALS’ PERSPECTIVES [$2,500]

RX-TO-OTC-SWITCH ANALYSIS AND FORECAST [$8,500]

REGULATORY ANALYSIS [$1,300]

Table 7-1 REGULATORY HISTORY: LIPID-LOWERING Rx-to-OTC SWITCH ATTEMPTS
Figure 7-1 EXPIRATIONS OF U.S. PATENTS FOR CHOLESTEROL REDUCERS: STATINS AND OTHERS

MARKET FORECAST FOR OTC CHOLESTEROL DRUGS [$4,300]

Table 7-2 SWITCH LIKELIHOOD OF STATINS IN THE UNITED STATES, 2006 TO 2011
Table 7-3 POSSIBLE SWITCH SCENARIOS OF U.S. CHOLESTEROL-LOWERING DRUGS
Figure 7-2 BASIC FORMULA USED TO CALCULATE SALES OF OTC STATINS IN KLINE’S FUTUREVIEW FORECASTING TOOL
Table 7-5 FORECAST MANUFACTURERS’ SALES OF THE U.S. OTC CHOLESTEROL-LOWERING MARKET, 2006 TO 2010
Table 7-6 FORECAST RETAIL SALES OF THE U.S. OTC CHOLESTEROL-LOWERING MARKET, 2006 TO 2010
Figure 7-3 FORECAST U.S. MANUFACTURERS’ SALES OF CHOLESTEROL-LOWERING DRUGS, 2006 TO 2010
Figure 7-4 FORECAST U.S. RETAIL SALES OF CHOLESTEROL-LOWERING DRUGS, 2006 TO 2010
Table 7-7 FORECAST RETAIL SALES OF THE U.S. OTC CHOLESTEROL MARKET, 2006 TO 2010
Figure 7-5 FORECAST MANUFACTURERS’ SALES OF THE U.S. OTC CHOLESTEROL MARKET, 2006 TO 2010: Branded vs. Private-Label Product Sales
Table 7-8 FORECAST MANUFACTURERS’ SALES OF THE U.S. OTC CHOLESTEROL MARKET, 2006 TO 2010 Branded vs. Private-Label Product Sales
Table 7-9 NUMBER OF ADULTS WHO NEED LIFESTYLE AND DRUG TREATMENT
Table 7-10 LDL-C GOALS AND CUT POINTS FOR THERAPEUTIC LIFESTYLE CHANGES AND DRUG THERAPY IN DIFFERENT RISK CATEGORIES

FORECAST OF CHOLESTEROL DRUGS BY INDIVIDUAL OTC STATIN [$4,300]

Figure 7-6 FORECAST PROBABLE-CASE SCENARIO OF MANUFACTURERS’ SALES OF OTC MEVACOR AND PRIVATE-LABEL LOVASTATIN, 2006 TO 2010
Figure 7-7 FORECAST PROBABLE-CASE MANUFACTURERS’ SALES FOR OTC PRAVACHOL AND PRIVATE-LABEL PRAVASTATIN, 2006 TO 2010
Figure 7-8 FORECAST PROBABLE-CASE MANUFACTURERS’ SALES FOR OTC LIPITOR, 2010 AND 2011
Figure 7-9 FORECAST PROBABLE-CASE MANUFACTURERS’ SALES FOR OTC ZOCOR AND PRIVATE-LABEL SIMVASTATIN, 2007 TO 2010

COMPANY PROFILES: EXPERTISE OF OTC MARKETERS [$3,600]

Table 7-11 BAYER GROUP’S SALES OF NONPRESCRIPTION DRUGS, 2003 AND 2004
Table 7-12 BAYER GROUP’s Rx-to-OTC SWITCH BRAND SALES AND MARKET SHARES, 2004
Table 7-13 BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB’S SALES OF NONPRESCRIPTION DRUGS, 2003 AND 2004
Table 7-14 BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB’S Rx-to-OTC SWITCH BRAND SALES AND MARKET SHARES, 2004
Table 7-15 JOHNSON & JOHNSON–MERCK’S SALES OF NONPRESCRIPTION DRUGS, 2003 AND 2004
Table 7-16 NOVARTIS’ SALES OF NONPRESCRIPTION DRUGS, 2003 AND 2004
Table 7-17 NOVARTIS’ Rx-to-OTC SWITCH BRAND SALES AND MARKET SHARES, 2004
Table 7-18 PFIZER’S SALES OF NONPRESCRIPTION DRUGS, 2003 AND 2004
Table 7-19 PFIZER’S Rx-to-OTC SWITCH BRAND SALES AND MARKET SHARES, 2004
Table 7-4 ASSUMPTIONS USE BY SCENARIO TO DEVELOP KLINE’S FORECASTS FOR OTC CHOLESTEROL-LOWERING DRUGS

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