Emerging Markets Rx-to-OTC Switch: Forecasts and Opportunities
Published: October 2012
Base Year: 2011 & 2012 estimates
Regional Coverage: China, Russia
This comprehensive report provides subscribers with objective,
independent forecasts of future Rx-to-OTC switches in emerging
markets and their expected impacts on the OTC market. This analysis
provides forecasts of future switches in both existing nonprescription drug categories and projections for new
categories. Subscribers also have access to Kline’s interactive Future
View Forecasting Model. The study provides an analysis of:
- Overview of the OTC and Rx markets in each country
- Comparative analysis of prescription and over-the-counter
- Regulatory issues
- Safety/efficacy issues
- Potential OTC indications and claims
- Likelihood of switch and expected timing
- OTC market potential, sales forecasts, and growth potential
FutureView Forecasting Model
Forecasts by therapeutic class and brand in this report are generated
with Kline's FutureView Forecasting model,
which provides Kline's forecasts for future switches and allows
users to change assumptions to see how various scenarios may
impact future switch sales.
– Loperamide hydrochloride
– Alendronate sodium
Allergy Relief Products
The cost of prescription medicines is a major global economic and social issue. Many health regulatory agencies are
focused on Rx-to-OTC switches as a way to help curb escalating prescription drug spending. At the same
time, several major prescription drugs have recently lost, or will soon lose, patent protection. The market is ripe for
new Rx-to-OTC switches and entirely new OTC categories.
Emerging markets, such as Russia and China, offer high growth opportunities for OTC marketers however, the switch
approval process is not as clearly defined in these markets as it is in the developed markets.
In Russia, the government is investing $4 billion (120 billion rubles) on its Pharma 2020 initiative to increase the
amount of drugs that are manufactured within Russia, which to date has been characterized as an import-dependent
In China, the sheer size of the population, the large aging population, increased income levels and health awareness
make for a ripe OTC market with vast growth potential.
Both the Chinese and Russian markets are looking at OTC availability as a way of reducing prescription drug
expenditures for its respective health ministries, and as a means of improving consumer access to medications for illnesses with increasing incidence.
In these markets, consumers have more healthcare information available to them than ever before, through the
Internet, and a general thirst for healthcare information in the media. Self-care is something that consumers, third
party payers, the pharmaceutical industry, and even physicians agree can often reduce costs and improve health
outcomes. Patients with chronic conditions are often well informed about their condition and are able to use
medicines correctly. As a result of the convergence of all these factors, the stage is set for more Rx-to-OTC switches.
The report is organized into three sections as follows:
FutureView Forecasting Model
In forecasting Rx-to-OTC switches, a variety of factors are at play in each market that can affect the timing of
switches. Competitive pressures, regulatory hurdles, and patent expirations each play significant roles in switch
timing. Therefore, each drug is analyzed on a case-by-case basis, and the forecast time horizon may differ for
each. Forecasts extend at least three years post-switch in each case.
For pharmaceutical marketers, Emerging Markets Rx-to-OTC Switch: Forecasts and Opportunities examines key
issues and implications that an Rx-to-OTC switch could have on the existing OTC business and identifies opportunities
for future growth from switches in China and Russia. Accurately predicting Rx-to-OTC switches and assessing
their impact is crucial for maximizing business opportunities, minimizing threats, and successfully constructing longterm
Specifically, the report provides subscribers with the following key deliverables:
- Up-to-date primary research on switches conducted with knowledgeable industry participants within China and
- An objective perspective on future switches
- An understanding of the implications of future switches for existing OTC markets and brands
- Identification of future opportunities by identifying drugs with high likelihood of switch, in which markets, with
what timing, and what sales potential
- Forecasts of major switches, including timing, brand sales, and both prescription and over-the-counter market
Forecasts in this report are generated with Kline's interactive, web-based FutureView Forecasting model. With the enhanced
forecasts, subscribers can see Kline's assumptions and can make adjustments to the assumptions to see how the changes impact sales forecasts.
As the leading consultancy on Rx-to-OTC switches, Kline has developed a program based heavily on primary research
(field and phone interviews) that has proven to be most effective and reliable in preparing switch forecasts. The
forecasts, data, and insights provided in this report are based on both primary and secondary sources, building on
Kline & Company's extensive database of OTC industry information. Emerging Markets Rx-to-OTC Switch: Forecasts
and Opportunities leverages our contacts in the industry and employs the use of primary research to capture insights
and information available from a wide range of industry experts and opinion leaders. Kline's seasoned consultants
will conduct detailed in-person and telephone interviews in China and Russia in the native languages in each country
with the following knowledgeable stakeholders: executives in the OTC and Rx industry, regulators, retailers, pharmacists, trade associations, conferences, and government bodies.
In addition to primary research, the study draws upon relevant secondary data, including regulatory information
obtained from health ministries and patent searches. In forecasting Rx-to-OTC switches, a variety of factors are at
play in each market that can affect the timing of switches. Competitive pressures, regulatory hurdles, and patent
expirations each play significant roles in switch timing. Therefore, each drug is analyzed on a case-by-case basis,
and the forecast time horizon may differ for each. Forecasts extend at least three years post-switch in each case.